Every December, Adam releases Savage – star of the television program MythBusters – a video in which he reviews his "favorite things" from the previous year. One of his highlights in 2018 was a series of Magic Leap Augmented Reality Glasses. After paying due attention to the hype and setbacks that followed the product, Savage describes an epiphany he had when he tried on the headset at home in his office. "I turned it on and I could hear a whale," he says, "but I could not see it, I look around my office for it, and then it swims on my windows ̵
Google Earth has long been an indication of what this mirror world will look like. My friend Daniel Suarez is a bestselling author of science fiction. In a sequence of his most recent book, Change Agent a refugee flees on the Malaysian coast. His descriptions of the street cafes and the landscape describe exactly what I had seen there recently, so I asked him when he made the trip. "Oh, I've never been to Malaysia," he smiled sheepishly. "I have a computer with three monitors connected and I have Google Earth open. On several evenings I drove on the Malaysian highway AH18 in Street View. Suarez, like Savage, saw a crude version of the mirror world.
She is already under construction. In tech labs around the world, scientists and engineers are trying to build virtual places that overlay actual places. The key is that these emerging digital landscapes will feel real. They will exhibit what landscape architects refer to as location . The Street View images in Google Maps are just facades, flat images are hinged together. But in the mirror world, a virtual building will have volume, a virtual chair will show chair, and a virtual street will have layers of textures, gaps, and interventions, all conveying a sense of "street."
The Mirror World – a This term was first introduced to the Yale computer scientist David Gelernter. It not only reflects what something looks like, but also its context, meaning and function. We will interact with it, manipulate it and experience it the way we do the real world.
At first, the mirror world appears to us as a high-resolution information layer superimposed on the real world. You may see a virtual nameplate in front of people we met earlier. Maybe a blue arrow that shows us the right place to make a corner. Or helpful notes about interesting places. (In contrast to VR's dark, closed eyeglasses, AR eyeglass lenses use a transparent technology to insert virtual phenomena into the real world.)
Finally, we can search the physical space while we search a text – "Find me." all places where a park bench faces the sunrise along a river. "We're going to link objects into a network of the physical, as well as the Web, hyperlinked words that produce amazing benefits and new products.
The mirror world will have surprises of their own quirks. His curious duality, which blends the real with the virtual, now makes unthinkable games and entertainment possible. Pokémon Go only gives an indication of the almost unlimited exploration capability of this platform.
These examples are trivial and elemental, which corresponds to our earliest discovery of what the Internet would be like shortly after it was born – the young CompuServe, early AOL. The true value of this work will come from the trillions of unexpected combinations of all these primitive elements.
The first major technology platform was the Web, which digitized information and subjected the knowledge of the efficiency of algorithms; it was dominated by Google. The second major platform was social media, which mainly run on mobile phones. It has digitized people and subjected human behavior and relationships to the strength of algorithms, and it is ruled by Facebook and WeChat.
We are now at the beginning of the third platform that will digitize the rest of the world. On this platform, all things and places are machine-readable, depending on the power of algorithms. Those who master this great third platform will become one of the richest and most powerful people and companies in history, as well as those who now master the first two platforms. Like its predecessors, this new platform will unleash the wealth of thousands of other companies in its ecosystem and a million new ideas – and problems – that were not possible before machines could read the world.
Insights into the World ] mirrorworld are all around us. Perhaps nothing has proven that the combination of the virtual and the physical is irresistibly better than Pokémon Go a game that apparently plunges virtual characters into the top-filling outer world. When it hit the market in 2016, there was an almost audible "Aha, I understand!" As the whole world decided to hunt cartoon characters in their local parks.
Pokémon Go 's alpha version of A Mirror World has been adopted by hundreds of millions of players in at least 153 countries. Niantic, the company that founded Pokémon Go was founded by John Hanke, who led the precursor to Google Earth. The headquarters of Niantic is now located on the second floor of the Ferry Building along the piers in San Francisco. Large floor-to-ceiling windows offer views of the bay and the distant hills. The offices are full of toys and puzzles, including a sophisticated escape space for boats.
Hanke says that despite the many new opportunities that AR opened up, Niantic will continue to focus on games and maps as the best way to leverage this new technology. Gaming is about technology: "If you can solve one problem for one player, you can solve it for everyone else," adds Hanke.
However, gambling is not the only context in which fragments of the mirror world arise. Microsoft, in addition to Magic Leap the other great contender in AR, has been producing its HoloLens AR devices since 2016. The HoloLens is a transparent visor attached to a headband. Once the holoLens are up and powered up, they'll map the room you're in. You can then use your hands to maneuver the menus floating in front of you and select which apps or experiences to load. One way is to put virtual screens in front of you, like on laptop or TV screens.
Microsoft's vision for HoloLens is simple: it's the office of the future. Wherever you are, you can insert as many screens as you like and work from there. According to venture capital firm Emergence, "80 percent of the world's workforce has no desks." Some of these unemployed workers now carry HoloLenses to warehouses and factories, build 3D models, and receive training. Recently, Tesla has filed two patents for the use of AR in factory production. The logistics company Trimble produces a safety-tested safety helmet with the built-in HoloLens.
After all, everything will have a digital twin. This happens faster than you might think.
In 2018, the US Army announced that it purchased up to 100,000 upgraded models of HoloLens headsets for a very nondescent job: being one step ahead of enemies on the battlefield and "increasing lethality. "You'll probably wear AR glasses at work long before you put them up at home. (Even the often malicious Google Glass headset makes a quiet entry into factories.)
In the mirror world, everything will have a twin. NASA engineers pioneered this concept in the 1960s. By storing a duplicate of a machine they sent into space, they could locate a faulty component while the counterpart was thousands of miles away. These twins developed into computer simulations – digital twins.
General Electric, one of the world's largest companies, manufactures extremely complex machines that can kill people in the event of a failure: power generators, nuclear submarine reactors, refinery control systems, jet turbines. To design, build and operate these huge devices, GEA borrowed NASA's trick: it started with the development of a digital twin for each machine. For example, the jet engine serial number E174 could have a corresponding E174 lookalike. Each of its parts can be spatially represented in three dimensions and placed in its corresponding virtual location. In the near future, such digital twins could become essentially dynamic digital simulations of the engine. This full size 3D digital twin is more than a spreadsheet. With volume, size and texture, it embodies itself like an avatar.
In 2016, GE has transformed itself into a "digital industrial enterprise" defined as a "fusion of the physical and digital worlds." To say the way it is to build the mirror world is to say. Digital twins have already improved the reliability of industrial processes using GE machinery, such as oil refining or equipment manufacturing.
For its part, Microsoft has extended the concept of digital twins from objects to entire systems. The company uses AI "to create a complete virtual replica of what's going on throughout the factory floor." What better way to handle a huge six-axis robotic mill than to overlay the machine with an even-sized virtual twin that's visible AR? -Equipment? The repairman sees the virtual spirit shimmering above the real thing. It examines the virtual overlay to highlight the likely flawed parts on the actual parts. An expert on HQ can share the views of the repair technician in AR and keep her hands on the real parts.
At some point, everything will have a digital twin. This happens faster than you might think. Housewares retailer Wayfair has many millions of products in its online home improvement catalog, but not all pictures are taken in a photo studio. Instead, Wayfair found it was cheaper to create a three-dimensional, photorealistic computer model for each object. You need to look closely at the image of a kitchen mixer on Wayfair's website to see its true virtuality. If you browse through the company's website today, you'll get an insight into the mirror world.
Wayfair now releases these digital objects in the wild. "We want you to shop for your home from home," says Wayfair co-founder Steve Conine. It has released an AR app that uses the camera of a phone to create a digital version of an interior. The app can then place a 3D object in a room and keep it anchored during the movement. With an eye on your phone, you can walk through virtual furniture creating the illusion of a three-dimensional environment. You can then put a virtual sofa in your cave, try it on different places in the room and swap fabric patterns. What you see comes very close to what you receive.
When customers try out such a service at home, they are "11 times more likely," says Sally Huang, the lead of Houzz's similar AR app. Ori Inbar, a VC investor at AR, calls this "moving the Internet out of the screens into the real world".
For mirrorworld to be completely online, we do not need everything to have a digital twin. We also need to create a 3D physical reality model where these twins are placed. Consumers will largely do it themselves: when someone looks at a scene through a device, especially wearable glasses, small embedded cameras that look out will map what they see. The cameras capture only small pixels, which does not mean much. Artificial intelligence – embedded in the device, in the cloud or both – will understand these pixels; It will determine exactly where you are in one place at exactly the time you assess what is there. The technical term for this is SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) and is happening right now.
For example, at the launch of 6D.ai, a platform was developed for the development of AR apps that can detect large objects in real time. When I take a picture of a street with one of these apps, it recognizes each car as a separate car object, each street lighting as a large object different from the nearby tree objects, and the store fronts as flat things behind the cars – the Divide the world into a meaningful order.
And this order will be continuous and coherent. In the mirror world, objects exist in relation to other things. Digital windows will exist in the context of a digital wall. Instead of connections created by chips and bandwidth, the connections are generated by AIs. The mirror world also creates the long-promised Internet of Things.
Another app on my phone, Google Lens, can also see discrete objects. It is already smart enough to identify a dog's breed, the design of a shirt, or the plant species. Soon these functions will be integrated. If you look around with magical glasses in your living room, the system picks up all of it bit by bit and informs you that there is a framed etching on the wall, there is a four-color wallpaper, and that it is a white vase Roses and this is an antique Persian rug, and here is a nice empty place where your new sofa might be. Then it will say, based on the colors and styles of furniture that you already have in the room, we recommend this color and style of the sofa. You will like it. May we also propose this cool lamp?
Augmented reality is the technology that supports the mirror world; It's the awkward newborn that will become a giant. "Mirror worlds immerse you without taking you out of space. They are still present, but on a different level of reality. Remember Frodo when he puts on the One Ring. Instead of cutting you off from the world, they're creating a new connection, "writes Keiichi Matsuda, former Creative Director of Leap Motion, a company that develops handheld technology for AR.
The mirror world is in full bloom, waiting for cheap, wearable glasses The speculation has risen that one of the largest tech companies could develop such a product, Apple was involved in an AR hiring and recently acquired a startup called Akonia Holographics specializing in thin, transparent "smart glass" lenses "Augmented reality will change everything," said Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, during a profit announcement in late 2017. "I think it's profound, and I think Apple is in a truly unique position to be a leader in this area
But you do not need AR glasses, you can work with just about any device you can do today with the Google's Pixel phone, but without the compelling presence you get with 3D visors. Already, wearables such as watches or intelligent clothing can recognize and interact with the proto-mirror world.
Everything associated with is associated with the mirror world. Everything connected with the mirror world is seen and seen by everything else in this networked environment. Clocks will recognize chairs; Chairs recognize spreadsheets; The glasses also recognize under the sleeve watches. Tablets see the inside of a turbine; Turbines will see workers around them.
The rise of a vast mirror world will depend in part on a fundamental revolution, away from telephone life and towards a technology that is two centuries old: the camera. To make a map as big as the globe – in 3D – you have to photograph all the places and things from every possible angle and time. This means you must have a planet full of cameras that are always on
We are making this distributed, all-seeing camera network by getting cameras to locate electrical eyes that can be placed anywhere, anywhere. Like computer chips in front of them, cameras are getting better, cheaper and smaller every year. There may already be two in your phone and a few more in your car. There is one in my doorbell. Most of these newer artificial eyes are right in front of our own eyes, on glasses or in contacts, so that wherever we humans look, this scene is captured.
The heavy atoms in cameras continue to be replaced by bits of weightless software that shrink to microscopically small dots that scan the environment 24 hours a day. The mirror world will be a world ruled by rays of light that dive into cameras, leave displays, and meet the eye, an endless stream of photons, on which we paint shapes we walk through, and visible spirits that we touch , The laws of light determine what is possible.
New technologies give new superpowers. We have gained super speed with jet airplanes, super healing powers with antibiotics, with which radio can hear super. The mirror world promises super vision. We have a kind of X-ray vision that can see objects through their virtual ghosts, break them down into components, and visually unravel their circuits. Just as past generations have learned text literacy at school and learned how to master the written word from alphabets to scripts, the next generation will master visual literacy. A well educated person may be able to create a 3D image in a 3D landscape almost as fast as it is possible today. They will know how to search all the videos ever made for the visual idea they have in mind without needing words. The complexity of color and the rules of perspective are generally understood as the rules of grammar. It will be the photonic age.
But here's the key: Robots will see this world. In fact, this is already the perspective from which self-driving cars and robots today see the world, namely the reality that has merged with a virtual shadow. When a robot is finally able to walk down a busy city street, the view it has in its silicon eyes will be the mirror world of that road. The robot's success in navigating depends on the road contours pictured above – existing 3D scans of the pylons and fire hydrants on the sidewalk, the exact location of the city traffic signs, and the exquisite details scanned by dozens of door and shop window landlords.
Like all interactions in the mirror world, this virtual realm is, of course, placed over the physical world, so that the robot also sees the real-time movements of people as they pass it. The same goes for the AIs driving cars. They too will immerse themselves in the mirror world. They rely on the fully digitized version of the roads and cars provided by the platform. Much of the real-time digitization of moving things is done by other cars as they drive around themselves, because everything a robot sees is immediately projected into the mirror world to use other machines. If a robot looks like it will both take care of itself and provide a scan for other robots.
Also in the mirror world virtual bots are embodied; You get a virtual, photorealistic 3D shell, whether machine, animal, human or alien. Agents such as Siri and Alexa will assume 3D shapes in the mirror world that can be seen and seen. Her eyes will be the matrix's embedded billions of eyes. Not only will they be able to hear our voices, but they will also be able to watch our virtual avatars, see our gestures, and pick up on our micro-expressions and moods. Her spatial forms – faces, limbs – will also enhance the nuances of her interactions with us. The mirror world will be the much-needed interface where we meet AIs that are otherwise abstract spirits in the cloud.
There is another way to look at objects in the mirror world. They can be used twice and perform different roles in different levels. "We can pick up a pen and use it as a wand. We can turn our tables into touchscreens, "Matsuda writes.
We can not only deal with the positions and roles of objects, but also with time. Suppose I walk a path along the Hudson River, the true Hudson River, and I notice a magic test that my bird watching friend is looking for, so I leave a virtual note on the path. It stays there until it passes by. The same phenomenon of persistence we have seen with Pokémon Go : virtual creatures that remain in a real physical place, waiting to be hit. Time is a dimension in the mirror world that can be adjusted. Unlike in the real world, but very similar to the world of software apps, you can flip back.
The story will be a verb. With one touch you can return to any place in time and see what came before. You can put a reconstructed 19th-century view of the present reality. To recall an earlier time in one place, simply return to a previous version stored in the log. The entire mirror world will look like a Word or Photoshop file that you can undo over and over again. Or you scroll in the other direction: forward. Artists can create future versions of a place. The correctness of such a clever world education will be revolutionary. These scroll-forward scenarios will be shaped by reality as they are derived from a vast contemporary world. In this way, the mirror world can best be described as a 4D world.
Like the Web and social media before, the mirror world will unfold and grow, leading to unintentional problems and unexpected benefits. Start with the business model. Are we trying to start the platform with the abbreviation for advertising? Probably. I'm old enough to remember the Internet before commercial activity allowed, and it was just too broken to grow. An ad-free mirror world would be impossible and undesirable. However, if the only business model sells our attention, then we have a nightmare – because in this world, our attention can be tracked and channeled with much greater resolution, making it easy to exploit.
On a macro level, the mirror world will have the decisive feature of increasing yields. The more people use it, the better it gets. The better it gets, the more users will use it and so on. This self-reinforcing circuit is the main logic of platforms, which is why platforms – like the Web and social media – are so fast and so big. However, this dynamic is also referred to as winner-everything-everything. That's why one or two parties dominate the platforms. We're just trying to figure out how to deal with these natural monopolies, these weird new beasts like Facebook, Google and WeChat that have both the power of governments and business. To further obscure this view, all these platforms are messy mixtures of centralization and decentralization.
In the long term, the mirror world can only assert itself as a utility; Like other utilities such as water, electricity or broadband, we have to pay a regular recurring fee – a subscription. We will gladly do that if (and if) we believe we get real value in this virtual place.
The emergence of the mirror world will affect us all on the deepest personal level. We know that in two worlds there will be serious physiological and psychological effects of living. We have already learned that from our experience in cyberspace and virtual realities. But we do not know what these effects will be, much less how we can prepare or avoid them. We do not even know the exact cognitive mechanism through which the illusion of AR can work in the first place.
We reflexively speculate about this big data. We can imagine as many ways as it could harm us.
The big paradox is that the only way to understand how AR works is to build AR and test ourselves in it. It is strangely recursive: the technology itself is the microscope needed to study the effects of the technology.
Some people are very upset about the idea that new technologies will cause new damage, and that we voluntarily give ourselves up to these risks if we could take them over. The precautionary principle: Do not let the new, unless it is for sure. However, this principle is not feasible because the old technologies we replace are even less secure. More than 1 million people die on the streets every year, but we fight robot robots when they kill a person. We argue about the unappetizing influence of social media on our politics, while the bias of TV on elections is far greater than that of Facebook. The mirror world will certainly be subject to this double standard of stricter norms.
Many risks of the mirror world are easy to imagine, since they are the same on current platforms. For example, we need mechanisms in mirrorworld to prevent counterfeiting, stop unauthorized deletions, detect unwanted insertions, remove spam, and reject unsafe parts. Ideally, we can do this in a way that is open to all participants, without the need to involve a Big Brother overseer like a dominant company.
Blockchain was looking for a job, and the integrity of an open mirror world could be guaranteed for what it was born for. There are enthusiastic people working on this opportunity now. Unfortunately, it is not difficult to imagine scenarios in which the mirror world is largely centralized, perhaps by a government. We still have the choice.
Ausnahmslos war jeder Forscher auf diesem Gebiet, mit dem ich gesprochen habe, sich dieser abweichenden Pfade bewusst und behauptet, auf ein dezentralisiertes Modell hinzuarbeiten – aus verschiedenen Gründen, einschließlich des Chefs Eine, die eine zentrale und offene Plattform reichhaltiger und robuster sein wird. Clay Bavor, Vizepräsident von AR und VR bei Google, sagt: "Wir wollen einen offenen Service, der mit jeder Nutzung des Internet verbessert wird."
Die Spiegelwelt wird große Bedenken hinsichtlich des Datenschutzes aufkommen lassen. Es wird immerhin eine Milliarde Augen enthalten, die zu jedem Punkt hinschauen und sich zu einem zusammenhängenden Blick vereinigen. Die Spiegelwelt wird aus ihren Augen und anderen Sensoren so viele Daten, Big Data, erzeugen, dass wir uns ihre Größe derzeit nicht vorstellen können. Damit dieses räumliche Reich funktionieren kann – um die virtuellen Zwillinge aller Orte und Dinge mit den realen Orten und Dingen zu synchronisieren und für Millionen sichtbar zu machen – müssen Menschen und Dinge bis zu einem Grad verfolgt werden, der nur als totaler Überwachungszustand bezeichnet werden kann
Wir spiegeln das Gespenster solcher großen Daten reflexartig zurück. Wir können uns so viele Möglichkeiten vorstellen, wie es uns schaden könnte. Es gibt jedoch einige Möglichkeiten, von denen Big Data profitieren könnte, und die wichtigste davon ist die Spiegelwelt. Der Weg, Big Data zu zivilisieren, so dass wir mehr gewinnen als verlieren, ist ungewiss, komplex und nicht offensichtlich.
Aber wir haben bereits einige Erfahrung, die unsere Annäherung an die Spiegelwelt beeinflussen kann. Zu den bewährten Verfahren gehören verbindliche Transparenz und Rechenschaftspflicht für alle Parteien, die die Daten berühren. Symmetrie im Informationsfluss, so dass die Beobachter selbst beobachtet werden; und das Bestehen darauf, dass Datenersteller – Sie und ich – klare, auch monetäre, Vorteile aus dem System ziehen. Ich bin optimistisch, dass ein praktikabler Weg gefunden werden kann, um mit diesen allgegenwärtigen Daten umzugehen, da die Spiegelwelt nicht der einzige Ort ist, an dem sie sich ansammeln wird. Big Data wird überall sein. Ich hoffe, dass die Spiegelwelt bei einem Neubeginn der Ort ist, an dem wir dies zuerst herausfinden können.
Die digitale Welt wurde seit den frühesten -Reaktionen des Internets als körperloser Cyberspace betrachtet – ein immaterieller Bereich, von dem getrennt wird der physischen Welt und so verschieden von der materiellen Existenz, dass dieser elektronische Raum seine eigenen Regeln beanspruchen könnte. In vielerlei Hinsicht sind die virtuelle und die physische Welt tatsächlich parallel verlaufen und treffen sich nie. Im virtuellen Raum herrschte ein Gefühl unendlicher Freiheit, das durch die Trennung von der physischen Form ausgelöst wurde: frei von Reibung, Schwerkraft, Schwung und all den Newtonschen Zwängen, die uns zurückhalten. Wer möchte nicht in den Cyberspace flüchten, um die beste (oder schlechteste) Version von sich selbst zu werden?
Die Spiegelwelt biegt diese Flugbahn auf sich. Anstatt zwei getrennte Bereiche fortzusetzen, verschmilzt diese neue Plattform die beiden, so dass digitale Bits in Materialien aus Atomen eingebettet werden. Sie interagieren im virtuellen, indem Sie im physischen interagieren, Ihre Muskeln bewegen und Ihre Zehen stoßen. Informationen zu diesem berühmten Brunnen in einem römischen Platz finden Sie an diesem Brunnen in Rom. Um eine 180-Fuß-Windturbine zu beheben, wird deren digitaler Geist untersucht. Nehmen Sie ein Handtuch in Ihr Badezimmer und es wird zu einem magischen Umhang. Wir werden uns darauf verlassen, dass jedes Objekt seine entsprechenden Bits enthält, fast so, als hätte jedes Atom seinen Geist und jeder Geist seine Hülle.
Ich denke, es wird mindestens ein Jahrzehnt dauern, bis sich die Spiegelwelt genug entwickelt von Millionen verwendet werden und mehrere Jahrzehnte reifen. Aber wir sind nahe genug an der Geburt dieses großartigen Werks, um seinen Charakter in groben Einzelheiten vorhersagen zu können.
Diese verschmolzene Welt wird schließlich die Größe unseres Planeten haben. Es wird die größte Errungenschaft der Menschheit sein, die neuen Wohlstand, neue soziale Probleme und unzählige Möglichkeiten für Milliarden Menschen schafft. Es gibt noch keine Experten, die diese Welt schaffen könnten. Sie sind nicht zu spät.
Kevin Kelly (firstname.lastname@example.org) war der Gründungsdirektor von WIRED . He’s the author of The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future and many other books, including What Technology Wants; New Rules for the New Economy; and Out Of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World.
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