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Climate Models for Predicting Climate Change for Decades: Study



Scientists have created decades of accurate models to predict the future impact of global warming, a new study found.

Published in Geophysical Research Letters on Wednesday The study examines 15 climate models that were used between 1970 and 2007 to predict how warm the earth would become. After the world has lived through the years in which these scientists issued the global warming estimates researchers could conclude that this was their predecessors did a damn good job . Building models that accurately predict the global increase in surface temperature associated with greenhouse gas emissions.

Warming, "wrote study author Henri Drake. Candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the joint program of oceanographic institutions in Woods Hole, he said. "And that says something about other things, because extreme precipitation correlates with temperature, so if you've predicted the temperature well, you probably also predicted some of those other things well."

Climate models are based on two key pieces of information: How much could humans in the future emit and a scientific understanding of the Earth's physical response to these emissions.

We can not know exactly how much we will emit in the future, as this has little to do with science and more with politics, economics, and humans. While studies published during the decades of analysis may have been wrong in their specific predictions on global warming, this is simply because they have inaccurately estimated the amount of greenhouse gases we would emit.

This team, which includes scientists from the NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has entered the actual amount of global greenhouse gas emissions into the models to determine if they would accurately predict global temperature the models were created. And they did it.

Drake and his team want to know how well these models performed in predicting various regional patterns within these global temperature increases. This is their next endeavor, but if scientists of the 20th century accurately predict the heat we are all experiencing today, imagine what the newer, more robust models could do.

"Presumably they will do better the global predictions warming," said Drake.

T These current models also go lower than rising temperatures . They provide insight into what a hotter earth will mean for our communities: increased sea-level rise, increased snowfall, heat waves . That's exactly what matters to people. You have to see how these global changes will look local.

And climate models make it possible. It's impossible to know what the future will be like, but science can give us a damn good idea.


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