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The latest research shows that summer will not stop the spread of the coronavirus

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The United States is still affected by the coronavirus pandemic: the death toll is Climb and quarantine is becoming unbearable. With the summer around the corner, people will want to go outside again.

While other diseases are mostly seasonal – those fluFor example, it thrives more in wintry conditions than in warm ones – it’s still unclear whether The warmer weather will reduce the spread of the corona virus. That means we should plan social distance through the heat.

“We don’t know if the novel corona virus is modulated by temperature or humidity, and we don’t know if this modulation, if any, is sufficient to slow the transmission of the virus,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a climate and health expert at Columbia University, said Earther.

Scientists have tried to find answers as the warmer weather approaches in the northern hemisphere. The latest addition to the growing corona virus and weather research inventory is a study The journal, published last week in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, noted that differences in temperature and humidity in countries around the world have little impact on coronavirus progression.

“The message is simple: Summer will not help us solve this problem,” said Peter Jüni, clinical epidemiologist at the Institute for Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the University of Toronto and co-author of the study, Earther in an e- Mail .

In early March, the study authors examined 144 areas around the world where the virus was at an early stage of spread, including parts of the United States, the Pacific Islands, and Australia. They first determined what the heat and humidity conditions were and what social precautions were taken at each location earlier in the month. After a 14-day incubation period so that public health measures could take effect for some time, they followed the evolution of the pandemic from March 21-27. While social distancing measures had a big impact, heat and humidity made little difference.

The scientists were surprised by the results because they are in stark contrast to their expectations. Preliminary studies had shown that temperature and humidity (and thus latitude) are relevant for the spread of the virus, including a number of studies March and April that still has to be assessed by experts. All of these papers showed signs that heat and moisture may reduce the transmission of the virus, if only to a modest extent. Jüni said his team’s new study was far more stringent than the preliminary investigation.

“When we checked our data, we found implausible outliers that probably contributed to the first impression of an association.” he said.

Other recent research is in line with Jüni’s group. A new study MIT’s Sloan School of Management, which has not yet been published or reviewed, stated that we should not expect warm weather to kill the coronavirus. Another study performed in China that Peer review also found no relationship with Heat, noting the “The spreadability of Covid-19 would not change with increasing temperature.”

Jüni said he and his team were “confident that [their] The current results are much more robust and therefore clear.Shaman said that, however Experiments like yours to investigate the behavior of covid-19 in the wild are not essential the best way to learn more about interacting with the weather. There are so many human factors that can affect how much a virus spreads can be difficult to control, so isolating the influence of temperatures is difficult.

“It would be better if we could also see it in a controlled laboratory environment,” he said.

He suggested an experiment in the style of one published in the New England Journal of Medicine in the last month, in which the survivability of the virus was examined on surfaces and in the air at controlled temperature and humidity.

“I would like to see this repeated under different conditions so that we can see that the viability of the virus is modulated in some way over time.” he said.

The problem is that these studies are not easy or quick to do. They require special facilities and laboratory times that can be difficult to get. The Department of Homeland Security has conducted such a study This suggests that the virus survives best in dry conditions, but the results have not been reviewed by experts.

Even without definitive laboratory experiments and a multitude of findings in the literature, We shouldn’t take summer heat will Stop that thing. But there is one thing All of these studies show is one effective distribution management tool: Social distancing measures.

“Only widespread public health interventions have consistently been associated with reduced epidemic growth. The more public health interventions that occur at the same time, the greater the reduction in growth,” the new study from the Canadian Medical Association Journal said. “These results suggest that seasonality is likely to play only a minor role in COVID-19 epidemiology, while public health interventions (school closings, mass gathering restrictions, social distance) appear to have a major impact.”

That doesn’t just mean it is too early to reopen the economies Lack of clear public health plansThis also means that more needs to be done to ensure that people can stay at home sustainably through the country Summer heat. Because, as Jüni said, when it comes to social distancing, we’ll be there in the long run – maybe a year or more.

“We all have to prepare for a marathon now,” he said.

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